Inflation and Market Pricing Trends in Trinald
Posted by: Cerberus on 2006-04-29
Category: Gameplay
Everyday the market value of platinum decreases, despite the fact NPC prices rarely change and that it is a consumable good. In this article, I will attempt to explain why this is so and how it relates to the value of certain items often traded on the market.
First, we should acknowledge a few basic premises of the Dark Grimoire monetary system that allow our analysis to be accurate. First, the money supply is not fixed. It is added to when monsters are killed and when dropped items are sold. It is removed from when money is used to buy items from NPCs (also when characters are deleted). There are no other means for money to be created or destroyed beyond admin intervention. Thus, it's simple for us to deduce that the supply of money in the Dark Grimoire increases when more is created than destoryed. In a natural monetary system, when the supply of money increases it's value decreases. This holds true in the Dark Grimoire.
Second, if we realize that if the creation of platinum outpaces is use, where does this excess come from? Well, we must make the following assumption: the rate of development in the Dark Grimoire does not surpass the speed of leveling of power levelers resulting in a group of ascended players (players at the maximum level). This is something we can easily agree to be true. It's even posted in the DG Forums. Why are these ascended players important? Because, they have no money sink. A money sink is anything a player will spend his or her platinum on-- the most significant in Trinald are potions and armour. Once a character has reached a level of ascendedness, she no longer needs to buy potions and she no longer needs to buy new armor. So any new platinum she makes adds to the money supply in Trinald without means to be removed. We should also note that ascendedness can occur at levels below the level cap. Certain players reach a level where farming platinum becomes easy and will remain there for a very long time to farm. While they stay at that level, they are adding to the money supply without disposing of their income to the usual money sinks. Each additional platinum earned by both of these types of ascended players is worth less than the last: Inflation!.
Now we can start to analyze how this effects the Trade Market in DG. Let's begin to consider quest items. When a quest is first introduced in the Dark Grimoire, players highly prize any items required to complete this quest. The demand for these items is greater than the supply, so their value on the Trade Market can become very large. However, after the existing players have successfully completed the quest, the demand plummets and prices fall. This may seem counterintuitive. Haven't I already said Platinum devalues everyday relative to the last? Shouldn't their value increase? Well, the force of supply and demand in this case far outpaces inflation. We see over time the supply increases, because these items, as it stands, can be found across Trinald by players at low levels while generally not being required for use until high levels. Since we realize that there are far more players who never reach the high levels than those that do, and during the lifetime of their play they will find these items thus creating supply but never reach the level to use them so we have a Market Surplus. Logically, prices of these items plummet. We saw this in the case of the Sceptor of Morninglight. When it was first introduced it sold for thousands of Platinum. Now it sells for less than 1000. So, it is advisable never to save these items in the bank, but to sell them. Their trade value is worth more to you now than tomorrow, because in the future you'll earn money faster, this money will be worth less in trade, and it will be cheaper for you to buy one of these items off market anyways.
Are there any traded items for which inflation actually takes effect? Yes! In Trinald there are SOME items desired by ascended players whose demand will not be exhausted. Golden Age Knowledge Machine Weapon Scrolls, Helm +Int Scrolls, and Character Stat Scrolls. These are perhaps the only items in the Dark Grimoire that have not and likely will not ever become commoditized. Their demand continues and will continue to outpace their supply because they are so difficult to come across and they're the only means by which ascended players who enjoy clicking and power gaming can continue to improve their characters. They're the only money sink that still exists at the top levels. So, while these players continue to earn more and more Platinum they can offer higher and higher sums of money to pay for them. Inflated prices!
Anything else worth noting? Well, you'll notice that the contests in DG have been offering greater and greater prizes. This is due to the increased money supply amongst ascended players as they are usually the ones who fund these contests. They have more money to offer as prizes in hopes to gain your participation. You can also consider that ascended players often give more aide. Helping newbies is another sink for their money, because the newbies will spend that money on NPC items and potions.
As it stands: the value of platinum today is greater than it is tomorrow. So, spend it now. As you level you'll earn money faster regardless and since NPC prices rarely change there really is no incentive to save any good with exhaustable demand, including platinum. The only real thing to consider is "Is the present value of money you'd get in exchange for that Golden Age Knowledge Scroll you just picked up worth more than the future value of the higher price you might be able to charge tomorrow? =) It probably isn't significant enough for you to need ponder it. If the playerbase continues to expand, we may just see the supply of even these scrolls increase enough to devalue their future worth!